Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

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Post-game reaction: IU vs. Notre Dame

Rapid Reactions
This game started slowly for IU as they struggled for the first part of the first half against Notre Dame. I was half expecting a slow start coming after a week off following the win versus #1 Kentucky, but this was a little much. They could have also been a little excited about Purdue blowing yet another double digit lead in the second half against a team that IU previously beat by sixteen.

Whatever the reason #TGFC (Thank God for Cody) in the first half. At one point, Cody Zeller had 10 of the team’s 12 points. If it wasn’t for him, I am not sure that IU sticks close enough to be in it at half. At one point I was thinking that Coach Crean should put Daniel Moore in the game for a spark! I am still curious about what in the world Elston was doing at the end of the half with five seconds left on the clock and launching a half court shot, but thanks to Remy he was bailed out.

I never was nervous about this game in the second half. Notre Dame kept it close but they never scared the Hoosiers.  Even though Indiana had several key members in foul trouble, the bench filled in nicely and we expanded our lead to mid-teens and held on, unlike Purdue. I was proud of all the members of the Indiana basketball team and I cannot wait until the Big Ten season starts!

I grew up ten miles outside Notre Dame’s campus and currently live in Lafayette, so today was a good day for me being an IU fan!

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Top 10 Things To Do Between IU Games

BtownBanners.com is excited to announce a great addition to our site! You've read his guest posts before, but now Kenneth Languell is a featured writer for BtownBanners.com. Welcome Kenneth!

After a win like the Hoosiers had last Saturday, over the top ranked team in the country, it can be hard for Hoosiers fans to adjust getting back into the swing of things, and to get through the long days in between games. I've compiled a list of ten things to do to bridge the gap and get you through the week. Don't let the hangover last too long Hoosiers, it's a long season and there is still plenty of work to do for all; the players and coaches, and us fans as well. Without further delay, and for your benefit, the list:

10. Recap. Go to BtownBanners.com and check out the analysis of all Hoosiers games thus far. Let's face it fans, the only cure for Hoosiers basketball withdraw is... MORE HOOSIERS!

9. Sleep. The experts say the human body and mind need an average of 8-10 hours of sleep per night. If you think about it, dreaming about Hoosiers basketball is almost just as good as watching the real thing.

8. Do your Christmas shopping. Have you bought that special someone their special gift yet? Diamonds are a girls best friend, but nothing says "I love you" like a brand new IU shirt. In case you haven't looked around,BtownBanners Team Shop has plenty of new shirts for sale, and links to other great classics.

7. Get some exercise. Peel yourself off of your couch, grab a basketball, go to the gym, and escape into the fantasy land in your head where you yourself are Christian Watford, and as time expires you launch up and sink a three to win the game. I suggest bringing 17,000 of your closest friends to rush the court and mob you after the shot goes in.

6. Do some chores. If your home is anything like mine, then it has beer spilled onto the walls from all of the arms and legs flying around in celebration after Watford's shot got nothing but the bottom of the net last Saturday. Go ahead and clean that up, and get a head start on this weekends chores. There's another game coming up, and what kind of a fan would you be if you were scrubbing toilets while the rest of us watch Tom Crean coach those boys against Notre Dame? If nothing else, whistle the Indiana fight song as you knock out your Honey Do list.

5. Eat. It's winter time, and it's the holidays, so don't act like you don't have a surplus of food in your kitchen. It's cold outside, and it's time to insulate yourself to stay warm. Plus, you've got to keep your strength up to cheer on the Hoosiers!

4. Go to work. A mortgage to pay, kids to feed and other necessities, sure, those are important reasons to go to work. Want another important reason? Because I'm sure you work with other people who are possibly Notre Dame fans, or Purdue fans, or even Duke, North Carolina or Kentucky fans, and we need to do our community a service by reminding them of the event that occurred last Saturday. After that reminder, be sure to inform them that Hoosiers basketball is back!

3. Spend time with your family. We as Hoosiers fans are a loving people, and that love doesn't stop when time expires. Do your family a service and play some family games, or go outside and shoot some hoops with the kids. I mean, someone has to dish you the pass before you can take The Shot, right? Too cold to play outside with the kids? Play Hangman. Two words, first word two letters, second word eight letters... that's right, GO HOOSIERS!

2. Do some charity work. Go down to the soup kitchen and give some time. Go the the recreation center and volunteer to teach some kids the wonderful game of basketball. Drive to Kentucky and spray some air freshener around the nearest trailer park. Do what you can do, and do it like a Hoosiers fan does it and give it 100%.

And the number one thing to do to bridge the gap in between Hoosiers games is...

1. Watch a replay of last Saturday's game!Trust me, after watching it over and over and over again myself, it's the best fix you need to get through these six days.

Not too much longer!

Kenneth Languell
@AskTheWho

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Gm 9: +/- Player Analysis - Kentucky Edition

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! It's going to be hard to say anything about this game that Hoosier fans don't already know.  IU basketball is officially back to the National Stage!  I have re watched the game twice now and have picked up on things you don't notice during the actual flow of the game.  For instance, Christian Watford practiced his Buzzer Beater shot EXACTLY earlier in the second half.  This game was one for the ages, an Instant Classic.

Key Players:

• Christian Watford - Did he step up or what?  Watford was a man amongst boys in this game.  He scored, he completely shut down Terrence Jones (although Jones appeared to shut down himself), and Watford played Hero for the night.  This was one of Watford's best games of his IU career.  Christian came up big for IU hitting 4 of 6 from behind the arc.
• Cody Zeller - A lot can be said about Dick Vitale's comments about the Hoosiers lack of effort in feeding Zeller all night.  From listening to Vitale, IU shouldn't have won that game since we didn't feed Zeller every trip down the court.  I do however agree with Vitale, IU has struggled at times this year to get Cody the ball down low.  Our future success will depend greatly on our ability to get Cody involved on the low blocks.
• The Fans - That was deafening.  From 90 minutes before the game, to 90 minutes after the game, Assembly Hall was jumping.  If you don't think a crowd can influence a game, ask Kentucky's freshman what they thought.  This was a great crowd and hopefully we will continue to see the early arrival from all fans.

With that being said, let's jump into the +/- Player Analysis

+/- Player Analysis vs Stetson
*Just in case you forgot, here is a quick breakdown as to what the +/- Player Analysis is looking at.
Example: Here is a quick example of how the +/- stat is determined. Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey start the game for IU. Therefore the score is 0-0. Coach Crean makes his first substitution at 15:00 with the score IU up 15-10. Oladipo comes into the game for Sheehey. For this stint in time, Sheehey would earn a +5 (while Sheehey was in, IU increased their lead by 5 points). The Lineup of Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey also earned a +5. This will continue throughout the game.

Game Overall   

 Key Takeaways:

• Close Game - This was the first single digit game the Hoosiers have been involved in.  It's interesting to see that 4 starters remained positive and the one starter in the negative was Cody Zeller.
• Cody played a game high 37 minutes so he was on both sides of the big runs.  This would be expected.  The interesting thing of note with Cody is, during the 3 minutes he was on the bench, IU outscored Kentucky by +4.
• Coach Crean didn't go very deep on his bench at all.  Only 7 players saw significant time.  Coach Crean did say in his post game press conference that Derek Elston was cleared to play medically, but he decided not to use him.  Hopefully Derek will be okay and can continue playing at the high level he was in the early season.
• I cannot stress this enough, anything in the GREEN, means the player had a positive impact on the game and helped IU get to their blowout win.

Lineups of the Night:  

Key Takeaways: 

• Here you can see the game flow throughout the night. The chart reads from the beginning of the game to the end from top to bottom.
• This is where the analysis gets interesting.  IU had two stints in the game (+8, +10) where they dominated the Wildcats for a short period of time.  It was really only those two stints that won them this game.  They got beat during the rest of the game.
• I'll discuss the stints in more detail below.
• Overall, Coach Crean used 13 different combinations of players in the game (the fewest amount to date).  Of his 13 combinations,  5 were positive, 2 were neutral (0) and the remaining 6 were negative.
• Of all the stints in this game (19), there were 6 positive, 4 neutral and 9 negative.
• Only two units played multiple times tonight.

Best Lineup of the Night:
The best lineup of the night (+5) belongs to Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, VJIII, and Zeller. They only played together once Saturday night. They did their damage at the 8:13 minute mark of the first half where they went +5 in 1 minute 30 seconds. This was actually the 8th time all year Crean has used this lineup.  Only 3 other lineups are used more often.

Worst Lineup of the Night:
The worst lineup of the night (-4) consisted of Hulls, Sheehey, Jones, Pritchard and Zeller.  This lineup played in the first half immediately before the Best Lineup of the Night came in.  This game was back and forth, and judging from the chart above, there were plenty of groups who had some negative splits.

Season to Date:
As many people like to point out, looking at the +/- for one specific game is not entirely telling. Tracking this over the course of the year, will give a much clearer picture as to what each player brings to the team. Below is the updated season to date +/- for each player.

• In a close game like this, there isn't going to be many huge misses.  This game was extremely close and you can see that from the plus/minus data.  
• Every player in this games' Pts/Min decreased, which is expect able.

Lineup Combinations
Here are some quick stats related to the Lineups Tom Crean has used through the three regular season games:

• Coach has used 131 different lineups this year.
• Of those 131, only 41 are negative year to date. (Increased by 3 this game)
• Best lineup is +45 (went -1 vs Kentucky;Crean's favorite unit (19 times) of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller)
• 2nd Best Lineup is +22 (went -2 vs Kentucky: Consists of Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, Watford and Zeller)
• Worst lineup is -6. (Consists of Hulls, Watford, VJIII, Sheehey and Pritchard)
• 34 lineups have been used multiple times this year.
• The top 4 used lineups contain these players: Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, Jones, Watford and Zeller.  Only Hulls and Zeller are in all 4 lineups together.

Lineup Creator!
Here is your chance to play Coach Crean!
What you can do is go to this link, "+/- Lineup Generator" and it will open an Excel file for you. Using the filters already on the page, you can filter the lineups for the year to see how all the different combinations of players play together.

For instance, if you wanted to see how the team does when Oladipo and Sheehey are in the game together, filter both their columns. This will return all lineups for the year that Oladipo and Sheehey have been on the floor together!

Overall
What an outstanding game this was.  I apologize for getting the +/- Player Analysis out late, but Kirkwood was calling my name Saturday night.  The hall was rocking, IU is back into the top 25, and Kentucky went home a loser.... What a great night!

+/- Player Analysis for Every Game!

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Bangtime with Victor Oladipo (Kentucky Edition)

Victor Oladipo yet again threw down a thunderous dunk vs Kentucky which helped ignite the fan base. Victor's dunk was #6 on the Sports Center Top 10 that night. He can thank his teammate Christian Watford for keeping him out of the top 5! Check out the video here!

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We're Back!

The rankings are out! IU comes in at #18 in the AP poll and #20 in the Coaches! What better way to celebrate than our new t-shirts! IU sent a message on Saturday night... That message was "WE'RE BACK!" Thanks and GO HOOSIERS!!

You can purchase the shirt in our BtownBanners Store!

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IU Players talk Kentucky Win (Video)

See what Chrisitan Watford, Jordan Hulls, Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller, Verdell Jones and Will Sheehey had to say about this huge win!

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Scenes from Bloomington after IU's Big Win

What a night! We'll have more posted today about the game and reactions from fans!

Kirkwood Goes Crazy!




Nick's English Hut



View from Behind Kentucky's Bench


View from the Student Section


View from Student Section Behind Baskets

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Post-Game Reaction IU vs. UK

I am not sure I can possibly type what I am feeling after this game! I have watched the IU/UK game with a friend of mine who went to Kentucky and a die hard UK fan for the last six years and this is the first time in that many years that we (IU) came away with a win. I live in Lafayette and I was watching the game in a bar with many Purdue fans that suddenly turned into UK fans and they quickly cleared our after Watford hit that three pointer. I am not going to talk about anything except how Freaking Amazing that game was. I have been a Coach Crean fan since he has started and I hope that fellow alumni that are calling for a new head coach after a difficult few years are quieting their voice. Amazing game and if you want some detailed analysis, go to ESPN3 and view the playback. AMAZING!!!! Oh wait, Sportcenter is currently highlighting IU victory over Kentucky currently!!!!

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Hoo's Next: Kentucky Wildcat Edition

Who: Kentucky Wildcats
Where: The Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
When: 12/10/11, 5:15pm
TV:  ESPN
Line:  IU opened at +3.5, has since risen to +6.5

Keys to the game:

• The Hoosiers need to keep the fans in this game to ensure a close game.
• Zeller needs to get touches early and get to the line.
• If IU shoots more free throws than Kentucky, our chances improve drastically.
• IU fans and players need to rattle Kentucky's star freshmen.
• The Hoosiers need to jump out with a killer mentality. 
• Attack the rim, get rebounds and limit turnovers.

Sorry for the rather short Hoo's Next this week.  I'm honestly shaking with excitement as I type this.  Here is the prediction.... IU wins 75-74 on a Cody Zeller tip in.  You heard it here FIRST!

Go Hoosiers!!!!!!

More from BtownBanners.com
IU vs Kentucky Poem
#KentuckySucks List
Coach Crean talks Kentucky

Final thing, post your #IUpickem predictions in the comments section.  It'd help me out a lot!

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From the Fans: IU vs Kentucky Poem

We have yet another fan post today! We receive many requests to post things daily. We can not post everything, but please know we appreciate your submissions. If you have a contribution to the site, please email us at BtownBanners@gmail.com! We would love to show off your work!

Today's contribution comes from Kenneth Languell (@AskTheWho)! A lovely poem about Saturday's game vs Kentucky!

It's Kentucky week,

and all through the South

you can smell the stench of trash

as it leaks out every Kentucky fan's mouth.

Kentucky smells

like the worlds biggest shit pile.

And there's a saturated ratio of trailers-

146 for every square mile.

But up in B-town

the tents are all a-glow.

Hoosier pride is a-plenty

as the cold beers flow.

Crimson and Crean

will have our boys focused.

"It's Indiana. It's Indiana"

were the words Tom told us.

We've been through days of glory;

hanging five banners in the Hall.

Calipari cheats to get his-

Hoosiers work hard to earn them all.

So let's hear it Hoosier Nation;

every steal, every shot and every good pass.

Let those inbred hicks hear it from the stands,

and let's all watch as IU beats Kentucky's ASS!

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Kentucky Sucks T-shirt WINNER!

Thanks for everyone that retweeted and entered to win the "Kentucky Sucks" Shirt! If you didn't win, don't worry! All the way up until gametime, if you enter the Promotion Code "Kentucky Sucks", we will take $2.00 off the price of the shirt!

A blind drawing was done, and @ntbanist19 is our winner!!!!! Please send us an e-mail at BtownBanners@gmail.com with your Shirt size and Address and we'll get the shirt in the mail for you! Congratulations!!!

Check out our NEW Store if you would like to purchase the Kentucky Sucks shirt!

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Tom Crean Discusses Kentucky

Coach Tom Crean met with the media today. Hear what he had to say the Hoosiers and their upcoming contest with #1 Kentucky.

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Loudest Moment in Assembly Hall

My ears were ringing, my body was shaking, I thought Assembly Hall might topple over.



It was that dunk. With 7:43 to go in the game, all 300+ pounds of Marco Killingsworth trucked down the court for a dunk that gave IU their first lead. It was the final piece of an 11-0 run that got IU back into the game. It was a thing of beauty.

It’s hard to put into words what it was like. I was a freshman at IU at the time, it was my first big IU basketball game as a student. I had been to plenty of games over my life, most notably the Haston 3 pointer vs Michigan State, but nothing compared to this. To this day I get chills just thinking about that play. IU fans know how loud it was, the players knew it, and Duke knew it.

Coack Krzyzewski called it the loudest environment he’d experienced… (outside of Cameron Indoor, which he probably only included so the Cameron Crazies wouldn’t commit suicide.) He said after, “Wow! What a great game. What an amazing atmosphere.” It was incredible.

I actually had a friend on the Duke team at that time, after the game the next day I called him to see what he thought. He said he couldn’t even describe how loud that was. It was the loudest thing any player on Duke had experienced. He said during timeouts, they couldn’t hear Coach, they couldn’t even hear the ball bounce. If you wanted to call a play on the floor??? FORGET it. Their ears were ringing ON the court while they were playing.

As we all know, IU couldn’t hold on. They let the momentum go away. For all of the games I’ve seen, this game is still my most memorable moment. It trumps all other sporting events I’ve been to in my life. Considering we lost… that speaks volumes about how loud it was that night.

With #1 and undefeated Kentucky coming to town on Saturday, many fans are asking if the Hall will be that loud again. For that to happen, IU is going to have to keep this game close and make a run similar to the 11-0 run they made vs Duke back in 2005. I hope for all the fans attending, that Assembly Hall is rocking like it did that night in 2005. For those of you who didn’t experience Duke in 2005, it’s something that you will NEVER forget.

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#KentuckySucks List

We all know #KentuckySucks, and our Twitter feed is blowing up with jokes. Share your best here and we will add them to the list and Tweet out the best ones!

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Gm 8: +/- Player Analysis - Stetson Edition

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! This was a story of two halves today in Assembly Hall.  IU came out into the game lethargic and nonchalant which allowed the Hatters of Stetson to hang close at the half.  Coach Crean did some lineup adjustments at the half; only returning 2 starters, to start the second half.  This was only the second time this year Coach has opted to start the second half with a different lineup than he did in the first half.  The insertion of Daniel Moore, Will Sheehey and Derek Elston proved to do the trick as the Hoosiers ended with a 84-50 victory.

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Hoo's Next: Stetson Edition

Hoo's Next

Who: Stetson Hatters

When: 4:30pm ET – Sunday December 4, 2011

Where: Assembly Hall – Bloomington, IN

TV: BTN.com, FirstRowSports

How to watch the game:

There are different avenues to watch the Hoosiers. The first option (and most legal option), is to purchase a subscription from BTN.com to view the game. Another option, is to wait until the game is shown on the BTN Channel on TV. The final option, is utilizing a site like FirstRowSports.tv which broadcasts games. They appear to be broadcasting the Stetson vs IU game today so you can give that a shot!

The Scoop: Out of the Atlantic Sun conference, the Stetson Hatters will be in Bloomington this Sunday to face off with our Cream and Crimson. Stetson (4-3) comes off a recent win over East Tennessee State but has their work cut out for them in this one. The Hoosiers, now 7-0, are sitting at ninth in the nation in field goal percentage (.524). Overall, it is important for Indiana to not overlook the Hatters despite the hype surrounding next week's highly anticipated match-up with number one ranked Kentucky.

What to Expect:

•

Deflections – Although his description of them is quite confusing, Coach Crean's getting a lot of them. Expect the ball to be batted and swatted around often when Indiana is on defense as their intensity and defensive presence has been unquestionable as of late.

•

Scoring – The Hoosiers are averaging 85 points a game this season and have continued to shoot lights out. The Hatters could struggle to contain the many scoring threats of Indiana.

•

Rebounding – The Hoosiers have struggled on the boards and will need to improve in the area to have a decent shot at Kentucky next week. Look for Coach Crean to stress rebounding with his players and emphasizing boxing out.

Outcome: The Stetson Hatters have endured much adversity already this season; however, two of their three losses have come against ranked opponents in Florida and Florida State. The Hoosiers, though, should outmatch the opponents in this one and hopefully move to an impressive 8-0 start. Hoosiers over Hatters, 81-57.

Get some new Threads for The Holidays! BtownBanners.com has partnered with Slumpbusting.com to offer Hoosier fans great shirts! Ranging from the original "The Movement" shirt worn by IU's top recruits, to the classic "Kentucky Sucks" and "Purdouche" shirts! Check them out!

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