Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

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Top 10 Things To Do Between IU Games

BtownBanners.com is excited to announce a great addition to our site! You've read his guest posts before, but now Kenneth Languell is a featured writer for BtownBanners.com. Welcome Kenneth!

After a win like the Hoosiers had last Saturday, over the top ranked team in the country, it can be hard for Hoosiers fans to adjust getting back into the swing of things, and to get through the long days in between games. I've compiled a list of ten things to do to bridge the gap and get you through the week. Don't let the hangover last too long Hoosiers, it's a long season and there is still plenty of work to do for all; the players and coaches, and us fans as well. Without further delay, and for your benefit, the list:

10. Recap. Go to BtownBanners.com and check out the analysis of all Hoosiers games thus far. Let's face it fans, the only cure for Hoosiers basketball withdraw is... MORE HOOSIERS!

9. Sleep. The experts say the human body and mind need an average of 8-10 hours of sleep per night. If you think about it, dreaming about Hoosiers basketball is almost just as good as watching the real thing.

8. Do your Christmas shopping. Have you bought that special someone their special gift yet? Diamonds are a girls best friend, but nothing says "I love you" like a brand new IU shirt. In case you haven't looked around,BtownBanners Team Shop has plenty of new shirts for sale, and links to other great classics.

7. Get some exercise. Peel yourself off of your couch, grab a basketball, go to the gym, and escape into the fantasy land in your head where you yourself are Christian Watford, and as time expires you launch up and sink a three to win the game. I suggest bringing 17,000 of your closest friends to rush the court and mob you after the shot goes in.

6. Do some chores. If your home is anything like mine, then it has beer spilled onto the walls from all of the arms and legs flying around in celebration after Watford's shot got nothing but the bottom of the net last Saturday. Go ahead and clean that up, and get a head start on this weekends chores. There's another game coming up, and what kind of a fan would you be if you were scrubbing toilets while the rest of us watch Tom Crean coach those boys against Notre Dame? If nothing else, whistle the Indiana fight song as you knock out your Honey Do list.

5. Eat. It's winter time, and it's the holidays, so don't act like you don't have a surplus of food in your kitchen. It's cold outside, and it's time to insulate yourself to stay warm. Plus, you've got to keep your strength up to cheer on the Hoosiers!

4. Go to work. A mortgage to pay, kids to feed and other necessities, sure, those are important reasons to go to work. Want another important reason? Because I'm sure you work with other people who are possibly Notre Dame fans, or Purdue fans, or even Duke, North Carolina or Kentucky fans, and we need to do our community a service by reminding them of the event that occurred last Saturday. After that reminder, be sure to inform them that Hoosiers basketball is back!

3. Spend time with your family. We as Hoosiers fans are a loving people, and that love doesn't stop when time expires. Do your family a service and play some family games, or go outside and shoot some hoops with the kids. I mean, someone has to dish you the pass before you can take The Shot, right? Too cold to play outside with the kids? Play Hangman. Two words, first word two letters, second word eight letters... that's right, GO HOOSIERS!

2. Do some charity work. Go down to the soup kitchen and give some time. Go the the recreation center and volunteer to teach some kids the wonderful game of basketball. Drive to Kentucky and spray some air freshener around the nearest trailer park. Do what you can do, and do it like a Hoosiers fan does it and give it 100%.

And the number one thing to do to bridge the gap in between Hoosiers games is...

1. Watch a replay of last Saturday's game!Trust me, after watching it over and over and over again myself, it's the best fix you need to get through these six days.

Not too much longer!

Kenneth Languell
@AskTheWho

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