Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

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Gm 13: +/- Player Analysis - Michigan State

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! This was a tough loss for the Hoosiers.  IU had stretches of dominant play mixed in with stretches of horrendous play.  How IU bounces back will be a very interesting question that will be answered on Saturday in Bloomington.

Key Players:

• Christian Watford - Watford came up huge for the Hoosiers again tonight.  Watford scored 26 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as he passed the 1000 point scoring mark for Indiana.
• Will Sheehey - This game was built for Sheehey.  I can see Sheehey playing a major role in the IU vs MSU game at Assembly Hall later in the year.
• Jordan Hulls - Hulls had one of his worst games as a Hoosier. His shots weren't falling (2-10 FG), he turned the ball over (4 TO) and he couldn't seem to get the offense moving.

With that being said, let's jump into the +/- Player Analysis

+/- Player Analysis vs Stetson
*Just in case you forgot, here is a quick breakdown as to what the +/- Player Analysis is looking at. Example: Here is a quick example of how the +/- stat is determined. Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey start the game for IU. Therefore the score is 0-0. Coach Crean makes his first substitution at 15:00 with the score IU up 15-10. Oladipo comes into the game for Sheehey. For this stint in time, Sheehey would earn a +5 (while Sheehey was in, IU increased their lead by 5 points). The Lineup of Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey also earned a +5. This will continue throughout the game.

Game Overall 

 

Key Takeaways:

• Being the first loss of the year, it is expected for Indiana's players to be in the red.
• Pritchard and Roth were the only Hoosier players in the green.  Their positive numbers were helped during their stint in the first half with 6:29 remaining with the Hoosiers trailing 14-28.  Led behind two Roth 3's, IU was able to cut the deficit to 7 points at the half.  The lineup of Hulls, Watford, Oladipo, Roth and Pritchard went +7 for this 6 minute stretch.
• Jordan Hulls is an interesting story tonight.  Hulls played all but 5 minutes of the game.  While Hulls struggled and couldn't find his game all night, he didn't hurt the Hoosiers as bad as you might think.  In fact, during the 5 minutes of the game when Hulls was out, IU was outscored by 14 points.
• Remy Abell recorded the worst Pts/Min of the season going -10 in 2 minutes of game time.  Remy was a part of a two minute stretch in the first half where Michigan State increased their lead from 21-14 to 28-14.
• I cannot stress this enough, anything in the GREEN, means the player had a positive impact on the game and helped IU's chances of victory.

Lineups of the Night: 

 

Key Takeaways:

• Here you can see the game flow throughout the night. The chart reads from the beginning of the game to the end from top to bottom.
• Overall, Coach Crean used 14 different combinations of players in the game. Of his 14 combinations, 4 were positive, 2 were neutral (0) and the remaining 8 were negative.
• Of all the stints in this game (19), there were 6 positive, 3 neutral and 10 negative.
• 3 units played multiple times tonight.

Best Lineup of the Night:
The best lineup of the night (+7) belongs to Hulls, Roth, Oladipo, Watford and Pritchard. This group played together once tonight in the first half.  With 6:29 remaining and IU trailing 14-28, Coach Crean subbed in Hulls, Oladipo, Pritchard and Roth for VJIII, Abell, Elston and Zeller (who just went -7). This group went on a tremendous 11-0 run before losing some steam at the end of the half.  

Worst Lineup of the Night:
The worst lineup of the night (-7) belongs to Abell, VJIII, Watford, Elston and Zeller.  This unit played immediately before the best lineup of the night.  The group entered the game at 8:41 remaining in the 1st half with IU trailing 14-21.  This group was replaced with the exception of Watford at the 6:29 mark after giving up 7 unanswered points.

Season to Date:
As many people like to point out, looking at the +/- for one specific game is not entirely telling. Tracking this over the course of the year, will give a much clearer picture as to what each player brings to the team. Below is the updated season to date +/- for each player.

• All players decreased their season averages including Roth and Pritchard (who went positive)
• Cody is still the top guy in the season to date.
• Austin Etherington improved his numbers considerably during the UMBC

Lineup Combinations Here are some quick stats related to the Lineups Tom Crean has used throughout the season:

• Coach has used 178 different lineups this year.
• Of those 178, only 53 are negative year to date. (Increased 11)
• Best lineup is +71 (went -4 vs Mich St; Crean's favorite unit (31 times) of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller)
• 2nd Best Lineup is +25 (went Even vs Mich St; New Lineup of Hulls, VJIII, Oladipo, Elston and Zeller who went +7 vs Howard)
• New worst lineup is -7. (Consists of Abell, VJIII, Watford, Elston and Zeller.)
• 49 (Increase of 7 this game) lineups have been used multiple times this year.

Lineup Creator! Here is your chance to play Coach Crean!What you can do is go to this link, "+/- Lineup Generator" and it will open an Excel file for you. Using the filters already on the page, you can filter the lineups for the year to see how all the different combinations of players play together.For instance, if you wanted to see how the team does when Oladipo and Sheehey are in the game together, filter both their columns. This will return all lineups for the year that Oladipo and Sheehey have been on the floor together!

Overall
This was one of the craziest seesaw basketball games you will ever witness.  I'm not sure if there was ever a point in the game where IU and MSU exchanged buckets on continuous possessions.  It seemed one team was always on a 10-0, 13-0 or even 20-0 run.  IU showed great poise in the first half to come back from an 18 point deficit.  To start the second half they took an 8 point lead, which most Hoosiers fans figured would spark the Hoosiers to their 13th win of the season.  Michigan State had different plans as they came back on a 20-0 run to put IU out of the game.  The Hoosiers have a lot of questions to answer, and there isn't much time for them to find these answers as #2 Ohio State comes to Bloomington on Saturday.


+/- Player Analysis for Every Game!

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Immediate Post Game Reaction: Michigan State

Postgame Reaction: IU @ MSU

This game was interesting to say the least. We started out slow and lazy and it was quickly looking like an IU game from last year. Turnovers, quick shots, poor time management were frequent in the first five minutes. We got down by 18 and looked dead in the water. The past few seasons, we would have panicked and trail by 30 at half time, but this team fought back. IU climbed back to a seven point deficit at half time.

In the second half, IU came out of the gate quickly and looked like a team that was going to blow the doors out of the stadium. Watford looked amazing throughout the game. He rebounded and scored like a first team all Big Ten player. IU pushed the lead to 9! I was jumping up and down thinking that IU was going to win by twenty...

...but then MSU shoved back up and went on a 20-0 run. I am not sure what happened during this streak. Coach Crean had Zeller on the bench with Elston and Pritchard in the game. Roth hit some quality shots, but he cannot play defense. Elston was dribbling and shooting shots like he was Victor Oladipo. WTF was that about. I hope Crean looks at the film and sits Elston down and explains that he is not in the game to dribble or take ill-advised shots. IU ends up losing the game by 15, but it was a much closer game than that.

Never thought I would say this, but thank God for Verdell Jones III. I was unsure if he was going to play in this game, but without him IU loses by 25. I am not sure what happened to Hulls. He had a few wide open shots that he did not hit. When Hulls is shooting a three I always think it is automatic, but this game he was way off.

Also, I am kind of glad Zeller was shut down in the first Big Ten game. Don’t get me wrong I don’t think he is over rated, but he, and all of Hoosier-nation needs to step back from crowning him as the best player in IU’s history. Hopefully, IU takes a look at the tape and figures out what went wrong before the next game. By the way, my in-laws are from Columbus and die hard OSU fans and if we play like we did tonight we are losing by more than 15!

Next game: December, 31st vs. OSU

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Hoo's Next: Michigan State

Who: Michigan State Spartans

Where: Breslin Center

When: 12/28/11, 7:30pm

TV: Big Ten Network

Conference play has finally arrived. While IU has proven itself a basketball contender over the course of its nonconference schedule, the true test for the Hoosiers will be how well they fare in the division. The Big 10 is verycompetitive this year, and with the hardest tests in the first couple of games for the Hoosiers (tonight’s game at MSU and a Dec. 31st road game at Ohio State), IU will need to pull off a couple of early wins in order to solidify its elite status in college basketball.

There’s a lot for the Hoosiers to be confident about coming into this game. There is no argument that IU is hot offensively. IU ranks fifth in the nation in FG%, is leading the nation at shooting 46% from behind the arc, and have many offensive options which makes them a threat.

However, the key to success for IU this game is rebounding. The Spartans boast a +10 rebounding margin against opponents compared to Indiana’s +4.5. DraymondGreen and his teammates are in the top 10 teams in the nation when it comes to grabbing from the boards. IU will need to improve this area of their game in order to get a win against the Spartans. Here are a couple of things to watch for as IU opens Big 10 play for the season:

Draymond Green

Green is one of the top players in the Big Ten right now. Green has scored __ consecutive double doubles this season, and scored 34 points against then-ranked #22Gonzaga. Zeller and the Hoosiers will need to step up defensively to minimize Green’s impact.

The Breslin Center

IU has not won a game at the Breslin Center since 1991 (17 consecutive games). This arena is one of the toughest environments to play in for the Big Ten. Coach Crean has mentioned it is important for the Hoosiers to silence the crowd and not allow MSU to score any large plays to allow the crowd to get into the game.

The key to success for the Hoosiers will be to reduce Green’s impact for the Spartans and to zone out the hostile crowd at Breslin arena.

By Mariel Yohe

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Contenders or Pretenders?

Quick note from BtownBanners.com:

We hope everyone had a great Holiday Season and spent some quality time with their families. As the Big Ten approaches, our coverage will increase and we look forward to following and updating you on this Indiana Basketball team. We take great pride in our growth over the last few months and we thank each and every visitor that helps make BtownBanners.com what it is today. We look forward to providing you great analysis and opinions on our Hoosier team. We primarily grow through word of mouth, and we appreciate you all for telling your friends and family about us. With continued growth, we will continue to increase our coverage and enhance the customer experience. The title of this article is “The Real Season Begins Wednesday”…. Same can be said about BtownBanners.com!

The preseason slate is complete. IU took care of business going an impressive 12-0 in the non conference. That is all great and something to pat ourselves on the back for, but that is like going undefeated in Preseason NFL football. Yes, the Hoosiers knocked off NC State and Kentucky. Both wins were great for this team, but IU trailed by 9 in the second half to NC State. IU dominated Kentucky for 38 minutes and let the lead slip away when it mattered most. IU has a lot to cheer about, but there are many questions about this team that Hoosier fans don’t want to see. NOW is the time where the Hoosiers will let us know if they are Contenders or Pretenders.

Starting Wednesday, The Hoosiers will open Big Ten play with a tremendously difficult three game stretch.

Wednesday December 28^th – at #16 Michigan State 7:30pm (BTN)

Saturday December 31^st – vs. #2 Ohio State 6:00pm (ESPN2)

Thursday January 5^th – vs. #18 Michigan 9:00pm (ESPN2)

Questions that might be answered on this 3 game Stretch:

- How do we handle a loss?

- How does Cody handle the bigger bodies in the Big Ten?

- If Cody gets in foul trouble, how do we respond?

- How deep can we go on the bench in big games?

- How do we play when the shots aren’t falling?

This stretch will be very important for our Hoosiers. Before the season, I had IU going 1-2 in this stretch with an “upset” over Michigan at home. Based on the landscape of college basketball today, the Hoosiers are the ones that could be “upset” in 2 of these 3 games. The real season begins Wednesday… let’s hope Coach Crean and his troops come prepared, because the Big Ten will BRING IT.

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