Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)
As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.
A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.
Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:
I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games
The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.
"Better" Games
The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.
"Best" Games
The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.
Overall:
Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.
The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).
As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.
A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.
Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:
I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games
The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.
"Better" Games
The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.
"Best" Games
The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.
Overall:
Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.
The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).
