Plus / Minus Player Analysis

Ever wonder what Coach Crean means when he talks about the Plus / Minus differential after each game? We did too, so we recreated his analysis, and provide it to you here after EVERY game!.

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Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michigan. Show all posts

Friday, January 6, 2012

MVP, So Far

What a game.  Before tip-off, I tweeted out that though IU was favored, I thought this Michigan game could be a trap game.  Well, as much of a trap game as the number 12 ranked team in the country can have facing the number 13 ranked team.  Michigan has shooters, and they proved it.  In the second half as time was winding down, it seemed that for every basket IU was making, Michigan was in transition that ended with Zack Novak draining a three pointer.  You've got to give Michigan their due; they came into Assembly Hall and almost squeaked out of there with a win, something that no other team has been able to do thus far this season. 

Along with its long range sniper Novak, Michigan has other athletes in its starting lineup.  Tim Hardaway Jr. can drive in to dunk, or shake a defender and make a jumper.  And it isn't difficult to out-rebound the Hoosiers, but Jordan Morgan finished with 12 points to go along with his nine boards.  A trap game for sure, but lucky for all of us cheering on the Crimson and Cream, Indiana stays undefeated at the Hall and moves to 14-1.

As the Hoosiers' season continues I keep asking myself, who is the MVP of this team?  And then I ask myself, does MVP stand for most valuable player, most valuable person, or most valuable people?  Regardless of the intended meaning, I now present my nominations and awards:

Most Valuable Player- This probably will go to Cody Zeller at the end of the season, but as of right now I have to give the nod to two other players.  Both Christian Watford and Victor Oladipo are playing lights out.  Watford has been a factor in every game.  He is second in minutes, second in points, second in rebounds and second in 3 point percentage amongst starters.  The "Watshot" at the end of the Kentucky game, his beard swag, and the fact that he is always a factor in every game gets him my nomination.  My other nomination goes to Victor Oladipo, who is never seen away from the ball unless he's resting or running along the baseline to rid himself of a defender.  On both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, Oladipo is straight hustle.  He can shoot the three, and he's on every highlight throwing the rock down on the basket as if he were seeking out revenge on the rim for dating his sister.  Indiana goes as Oladipo goes.  The intensity, hustle and ferocity that he brings all contribute to the energy IU will need if they plan on contending in the Big Ten.  As IU hops on the bus to go on the road and play teams like Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue, they will need the leadership of both Watford and Oladipo.  These two players will be the spark to this Crimson fire.

Most Valuable Person- Equally important as most valuable player, the most valuable person is the one who brings the intangibles to the success that the Hoosiers are experiencing.  I split this award between two obvious people. Both Cody Zeller and Tom Crean will be the foundation to Indiana's continued success.  Cody Zeller is an Indiana born player, and when he signed on to play for the Hoosiers, he opened the door for other five star recruits to come to Indiana and to feel that it's the right place for their talents.  On and off the court, Cody is showing that Indiana is the place to come and play basketball.  I read a lot about this team reminding fans of the teams from the early to mid 90s because of their passion and energy.  The energy in Assembly Hall wouldn't be there without Indiana's savior-boy Cody Zeller, who Hoosier fans protect and who every big program in the game covets.  And then there is the man who brought Cody to the Hall, along with other talent that is showing out this year.  Tom Crean has brought Indiana back.  He is making lineup changes and substitutions that are proving him to be the coach Indiana needed.  When key players are getting into foul trouble, Crean inserts players off of the bench and it is clear that everyone on this team knows their role and knows how to play situational basketball.  Crean is fired up and calm all at the same time, and the team is feeding off of this unique ability.  And his work off the court isn't stopping with the recruitment of Cody.  The class coming in next year is taking a life of its own, being dubbed as "The Movement," and the list of recruits coming in 2013 is getting better as Indiana continues to win.  As if the five banners hanging in the Hall aren't enough, new talent is coming in to pursue banner number six because "It's Indiana" and five ISN'T enough! Tom Crean knows this, and his efforts earn him my split Most Valuable Person award.

Most Valuable People- Benchmob.  If you have to ask, you'll never know.  What does Indiana do when Cody finds himself on the bench in foul trouble?  Oh, nothing special; just put Sheehey or Roth in to spread the court and drain big basket after big basket.  Need some rebounds?  No problem.  We'll just insert good 'ol Tom Pritchard in there to be a big body.  (Indiana fans will ERUPT for Tom on his Senior Day.)  And who's that inked up mask on the court?  That's Derek Elston who is getting better by the dribble.  Elston pulled down four boards, scored five points and rejected one of Michigan's shots to help Indiana get to where they are today: 14-1.  Benchmob.  Get to know it, because without it, Indiana isn't back. 

There is another group of people that deserve a note for Most Valuable, and that's the fans.  Passion.  There is no other word to describe this base of people.  It says a lot about us when we are "winners" in a landslide for worst fans in the Big Ten.  Undefeated at the Hall because the team is playing Hoosiers basketball and because the fans are giving them the extra motivation to keep playing Hoosiers basketball.  Of course we as fans don't need an award or a trophy... We're only after banners.

It's been a great ride through the first fifteen games of the season.  Now it's time for the students to come back, it's time to take our talents on the road, and it's time to show the nation that Hoosiers basketball isn't only back, but we're here to stay!  Go Hoosiers!

-Kenneth Languell
@AskTheWho

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Immediate Reaction: Michigan Edition

Rapid Reactions:
By: Brian Hall

Man that first half was fun to watch! Victor Oladipo got off to a fast start behind his great defense and quick transitions. I had a feeling before the tip-off that Victor was going to have a big game. He did not let me down!

Indiana built an early lead behind Christian Watford's shooting and Michigan's inability to hit a three pointer. Watford looked like a man determined to prove to Calipari and all of the Kentucky fans that there was nothing lucky about the game winning shot!

Cody Zeller played some quality defense along with a very efficient offensive showing. Matt Roth did what Matt Roth does. Jordan Hulls looked a little out of sorts at times and Verdell Jones III flashed back to his freshman year by trying to drive and create everything. It's 2012 Verdell, not 2008...

With all that being said, IU lead 39-32 at halftime.

Michigan took immediate control of the game during the first six minutes of the second half. That run quieted the crowd as it became tied up. Quickly after, Hulls picked up his second foul and Coach Crean went to his bench for Roth. The direction of the team seemed lost while searching to find a leader. Who would step up and lead this team? Of course the answer is Watford and Zeller!

Zeller has been hitting everything inside lately and IU rode his hot hand with Hulls on the bench. I know Hulls was struggling, but why ride him on the bench with two fouls in a close game when Jones III is struggling? Hulls came back into the game with Jones III and IU calmed down and took back the lead. The Hoosiers extended the lead to ten points on a “Lucky” Watford three and a Victor Oladipo dunk. Indiana went into the flag timeout ahead by 8.

Michigan was able to hang around while Hulls continued to struggle. I'm not sure Coach Crean would leave Jones III in the game when he continued to turn the ball over. Jones III respond by hitting two free throws to take a two points lead with 2:20 to go in the game.

Fast forward a couple of series and Jones III hits the big pull up with 24 seconds to go! Jones followed up those heroics with another miss on the front end of a one-and-one. Michigan quickly came down and launched a three from Kirkwood to close the lead to one with 2.9 seconds left. Indiana go the ball to Watford who hit one of two free throws to put IU up by 2. Michigan got Watford's miss and dribbled to half court for a game winning buzzer beater... that missed it's mark.

Indiana ESCAPED.

Every time IU would pull ahead, I thought it was over. Give Michigan credit as they kept on coming back. You can see Sheehey's value during games like this where Crean would probably substitute him in for Jones III. The positive to take away tonight: We won without Sheehey, a struggling Hulls and struggling Jones.

Hoo’s Next: @ PSU 1/8 12:00 pm

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Coach Crean Talks Michigan

See what Coach Crean had to say when he met with the media today to discuss the upcoming Michigan game.

Coach Crean:

Hoo's Next: Michigan


Who: Michigan Wolverines
Where: Assembly Hall, Bloomington Indiana
When: Thursday January 5, 2012 @ 9:00pm ET TV: ESPN 2




By: Aaron Maisel

As I put my blazer, my new Sperry’s and corduroy pants on three hours before embracing the new year, I did it with a smile. Not just because I was looking fresh and knew that I would find some random girl for that immaculate New Years “interaction” that I have been banking on, but because somehow that team who no one was willing to give a chance until 2012-13 season pulled it off again, except this time, with no students.

Miraculous? No. Anything is possible in college basketball.

Unimaginable? Yes.

Unimaginable for a team which won only 12 games last season, and now to have won 13 only in the beginning of conference play.

Unimaginable for a team to win at home, without one of the most passionate student sections in the country, against arguably the best team in the nation.

Unimaginable for a team that has been the laughing stock of Big 10 basketball to now be the only team in college hoops that has a lock to be dancing in March as long as they don’t lose the rest of their games.

And somehow, the Hoosiers are making the unimaginable a reality, but still have a long way until March and a few powerhouses from the Midwest left on their schedule.

Indiana (13-1) faces off against the Michigan Wolverines (12-2) at Assembly Hall on Thursday, January 5. The Maize and Blue are led by guards Tim Hardaway Jr (15.6 ppg), Trey Burke (14.0 ppg) and 6’9 big man Evan Smotrycz (10.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg). The Wolverines only two losses have come against Duke and Virginia, but are currently on a seven game winning streak. Although the Wolverines, similar to the Hoosiers are new to the top 25 attention, they have played in competitive games, including a last second loss to Duke last year in the NCAA tournament.

Even though the Hoosiers are no stranger to playing in the spotlight, it’s still a game that shouldn’t be viewed as “just another conference game.” “We will be dealing with the best transition attack we have seen all year on Thursday with Michigan,” said Tom Crean via Twitter. “They fly up the court.”

That they do!

Alright, relax. Crean is just giving credit where credit is due. Don’t get me wrong, this is a solid Michigan team which over the years has pulled off some jaw-dropping upsets, but this is also a Michigan team that is trying to make a new name for themselves. Just because Michigan is a run n’ gun team, doesn’t make the game plan similar to the strategy against Kentucky. The Wildcats played the Hoosiers tough, but were missing arguably their best player (Terrance Jones) who took lift off to Moron Mountain to kick it with the Monstars from Space Jam. Either that or one of the waitresses at the hotel probably slipped a Xanax into his water before game time.

In order for Indiana to find success, they have to play to their strengths which happen to be the Wolverines weakness—the big man.

One of the main issues that Indiana has been facing this season is that they have been relying thoroughly on the outsite shot. For now, it appears to have been working, but it will only work until those shots don’t fall. The Hoosiers haven’t been utilizing Cody Zeller enough, especially when playing a smaller and weaker opponent. Against Kentucky, Anthony Davis was in foul trouble and Jones left his game in Lexington, yet Zeller did not get the ball. Against Michigan State, a much more aggressive Derrick Nix took Zeller out of the game mentally and physically and made him look like Apollo Creed when he fought Ivan Drago in Rocky IV.

However, against Ohio State, Jared Sullinger got into early foul trouble and Zeller played a tough 21 minutes due to foul trouble, yet still managed to drop 14 points in the game. It’s pretty simple; Zeller will show the country that the guy who is guarding him is softer than a dude taking shots of Smirnoff Mango at the bar, as long as he gets the ball and has the desire to play. Against an undersized Wolverine club, Zeller should be able to get plenty of attempts if given the opportunity.

ESPN college basketball analysts have given a one-word adjective describing both the Hoosiers and Wolverines. The Hoosiers are surging and the Wolverines are undecided. The Hoosiers have been shocking the nation while winning in upset form and the Wolverines have yet to prove to the nation that they are a force to be reckoned with, despite their #13 ranking. They still haven’t gotten that one win which paints a picture saying that they are for real. What better way then to get that win against a team that has beaten a #1 and #2 ranked team this season?

That is the Hoosiers motivation against the Victors from Ann Arbor.

Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Contenders or Pretenders?

Quick note from BtownBanners.com:

We hope everyone had a great Holiday Season and spent some quality time with their families. As the Big Ten approaches, our coverage will increase and we look forward to following and updating you on this Indiana Basketball team. We take great pride in our growth over the last few months and we thank each and every visitor that helps make BtownBanners.com what it is today. We look forward to providing you great analysis and opinions on our Hoosier team. We primarily grow through word of mouth, and we appreciate you all for telling your friends and family about us. With continued growth, we will continue to increase our coverage and enhance the customer experience. The title of this article is “The Real Season Begins Wednesday”…. Same can be said about BtownBanners.com!

The preseason slate is complete. IU took care of business going an impressive 12-0 in the non conference. That is all great and something to pat ourselves on the back for, but that is like going undefeated in Preseason NFL football. Yes, the Hoosiers knocked off NC State and Kentucky. Both wins were great for this team, but IU trailed by 9 in the second half to NC State. IU dominated Kentucky for 38 minutes and let the lead slip away when it mattered most. IU has a lot to cheer about, but there are many questions about this team that Hoosier fans don’t want to see. NOW is the time where the Hoosiers will let us know if they are Contenders or Pretenders.

Starting Wednesday, The Hoosiers will open Big Ten play with a tremendously difficult three game stretch.

Wednesday December 28th – at #16 Michigan State 7:30pm (BTN)

Saturday December 31st – vs. #2 Ohio State 6:00pm (ESPN2)

Thursday January 5th – vs. #18 Michigan 9:00pm (ESPN2)

Questions that might be answered on this 3 game Stretch:

- How do we handle a loss?

- How does Cody handle the bigger bodies in the Big Ten?

- If Cody gets in foul trouble, how do we respond?

- How deep can we go on the bench in big games?

- How do we play when the shots aren’t falling?

This stretch will be very important for our Hoosiers. Before the season, I had IU going 1-2 in this stretch with an “upset” over Michigan at home. Based on the landscape of college basketball today, the Hoosiers are the ones that could be “upset” in 2 of these 3 games. The real season begins Wednesday… let’s hope Coach Crean and his troops come prepared, because the Big Ten will BRING IT.

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