Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

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Gm 12: +/- Player Analysis - UMBC Edition

This will be a short one as the holidays are approaching and IU completely destroyed UMBC.

Stats for the Game:
Stats for the Season: Lineups used in the game:

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Gm 11: +/- Player Analysis - Howard Edition

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! There isn't really much to say about this game as it was a complete domination from start to finish. Howard didn't stand a chance from the start. Check out Coach Crean and the player's thoughts of the blowout.

Key Players:

• Indiana's entire team. Did anyone play bad?
• Special shout out to Remy Abell who played his best game of the year.

With that being said, let's jump into the +/- Player Analysis

+/- Player Analysis vs Stetson
*Just in case you forgot, here is a quick breakdown as to what the +/- Player Analysis is looking at. Example: Here is a quick example of how the +/- stat is determined. Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey start the game for IU. Therefore the score is 0-0. Coach Crean makes his first substitution at 15:00 with the score IU up 15-10. Oladipo comes into the game for Sheehey. For this stint in time, Sheehey would earn a +5 (while Sheehey was in, IU increased their lead by 5 points). The Lineup of Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey also earned a +5. This will continue throughout the game.

Game Overall

Key Takeaways:

• As you can see, anyone who played significant minutes is extremely high in the green.
• 10 players were +1.0 pts/min.
• Oladipo (Check His Dunk Session) and Zeller were +50 and +48 respectively which is the highest I've ever seen in this statistic.
• Remy Abell - Abell had a great game tonight. This is represented in his +/- for the game. Remy will continue to see more minutes as the competition increases.
• I cannot stress this enough, anything in the GREEN, means the player had a positive impact on the game and helped IU get to their blowout win.

Lineups of the Night:

Key Takeaways:

• Here you can see the game flow throughout the night. The chart reads from the beginning of the game to the end from top to bottom.
• Overall, Coach Crean used 26 different combinations of players in the game. Of his 26 combinations, 16 were positive, 5 were neutral (0) and the remaining 5 were negative.
• Of all the stints in this game (28), there were 18 positive, 5 neutral and 5 negative.
• Only 1 unit played multiple times tonight. (Hulls, Jones, Oladipo, Watford, Zeller)

Best Lineup of the Night: The best lineup of the night (+16) belongs to Hulls, Jones, Oladipo, Watford and Zeller. This group played together 3 times tonight going +7, +3, +6. This group was the only group to play multiple times tonight so it makes sense that they received the highest plus/minus.

Worst Lineup of the Night:
Overall, there were 5 lineups that went negative. On a night like tonight, there really isn't any reason to point out which lineups went negative. If you must know, look above at the chart for Red to see which lineups went negative.

Season to Date:
As many people like to point out, looking at the +/- for one specific game is not entirely telling. Tracking this over the course of the year, will give a much clearer picture as to what each player brings to the team. Below is the updated season to date +/- for each player.

• Cody Zeller took over the top spot with his +48 tonight.
• All players improved with the exception of Moore who went negative on the night.

Lineup Combinations Here are some quick stats related to the Lineups Tom Crean has used throughout the season:

• Coach has used 152 different lineups this year.
• Of those 152, only 42 are negative year to date. (Did not change this game)
• Best lineup is +61 (went +16 vs Howard; Crean's favorite unit (31 times) of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller)
• 2nd Best Lineup is +25 (New Lineup of Hulls, VJIII, Oladipo, Elston and Zeller who went +7 vs Howard)
• Worst lineup is -6. (Consists of Hulls, Watford, VJIII, Sheehey and Pritchard)
• 42 (Increase of 5 this game) lineups have been used multiple times this year.

Lineup Creator! Here is your chance to play Coach Crean!What you can do is go to this link, "+/- Lineup Generator" and it will open an Excel file for you. Using the filters already on the page, you can filter the lineups for the year to see how all the different combinations of players play together.For instance, if you wanted to see how the team does when Oladipo and Sheehey are in the game together, filter both their columns. This will return all lineups for the year that Oladipo and Sheehey have been on the floor together!

Overall
IU looked incredibly focused tonight for a game that could have easily been an oversight. IU came out and established their game plan and executed at the highest degree. Howard was the worst team IU played so far this year, and it showed on the court. Holding an opponent to 15 points in a half is remarkable. IF IU can continue this type of play, it will be a good year to be an Indiana fan.

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Gm 9: +/- Player Analysis - Kentucky Edition

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! It's going to be hard to say anything about this game that Hoosier fans don't already know.  IU basketball is officially back to the National Stage!  I have re watched the game twice now and have picked up on things you don't notice during the actual flow of the game.  For instance, Christian Watford practiced his Buzzer Beater shot EXACTLY earlier in the second half.  This game was one for the ages, an Instant Classic.

Key Players:

• Christian Watford - Did he step up or what?  Watford was a man amongst boys in this game.  He scored, he completely shut down Terrence Jones (although Jones appeared to shut down himself), and Watford played Hero for the night.  This was one of Watford's best games of his IU career.  Christian came up big for IU hitting 4 of 6 from behind the arc.
• Cody Zeller - A lot can be said about Dick Vitale's comments about the Hoosiers lack of effort in feeding Zeller all night.  From listening to Vitale, IU shouldn't have won that game since we didn't feed Zeller every trip down the court.  I do however agree with Vitale, IU has struggled at times this year to get Cody the ball down low.  Our future success will depend greatly on our ability to get Cody involved on the low blocks.
• The Fans - That was deafening.  From 90 minutes before the game, to 90 minutes after the game, Assembly Hall was jumping.  If you don't think a crowd can influence a game, ask Kentucky's freshman what they thought.  This was a great crowd and hopefully we will continue to see the early arrival from all fans.

With that being said, let's jump into the +/- Player Analysis

+/- Player Analysis vs Stetson
*Just in case you forgot, here is a quick breakdown as to what the +/- Player Analysis is looking at.
Example: Here is a quick example of how the +/- stat is determined. Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey start the game for IU. Therefore the score is 0-0. Coach Crean makes his first substitution at 15:00 with the score IU up 15-10. Oladipo comes into the game for Sheehey. For this stint in time, Sheehey would earn a +5 (while Sheehey was in, IU increased their lead by 5 points). The Lineup of Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey also earned a +5. This will continue throughout the game.

Game Overall   

 Key Takeaways:

• Close Game - This was the first single digit game the Hoosiers have been involved in.  It's interesting to see that 4 starters remained positive and the one starter in the negative was Cody Zeller.
• Cody played a game high 37 minutes so he was on both sides of the big runs.  This would be expected.  The interesting thing of note with Cody is, during the 3 minutes he was on the bench, IU outscored Kentucky by +4.
• Coach Crean didn't go very deep on his bench at all.  Only 7 players saw significant time.  Coach Crean did say in his post game press conference that Derek Elston was cleared to play medically, but he decided not to use him.  Hopefully Derek will be okay and can continue playing at the high level he was in the early season.
• I cannot stress this enough, anything in the GREEN, means the player had a positive impact on the game and helped IU get to their blowout win.

Lineups of the Night:  

Key Takeaways: 

• Here you can see the game flow throughout the night. The chart reads from the beginning of the game to the end from top to bottom.
• This is where the analysis gets interesting.  IU had two stints in the game (+8, +10) where they dominated the Wildcats for a short period of time.  It was really only those two stints that won them this game.  They got beat during the rest of the game.
• I'll discuss the stints in more detail below.
• Overall, Coach Crean used 13 different combinations of players in the game (the fewest amount to date).  Of his 13 combinations,  5 were positive, 2 were neutral (0) and the remaining 6 were negative.
• Of all the stints in this game (19), there were 6 positive, 4 neutral and 9 negative.
• Only two units played multiple times tonight.

Best Lineup of the Night:
The best lineup of the night (+5) belongs to Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, VJIII, and Zeller. They only played together once Saturday night. They did their damage at the 8:13 minute mark of the first half where they went +5 in 1 minute 30 seconds. This was actually the 8th time all year Crean has used this lineup.  Only 3 other lineups are used more often.

Worst Lineup of the Night:
The worst lineup of the night (-4) consisted of Hulls, Sheehey, Jones, Pritchard and Zeller.  This lineup played in the first half immediately before the Best Lineup of the Night came in.  This game was back and forth, and judging from the chart above, there were plenty of groups who had some negative splits.

Season to Date:
As many people like to point out, looking at the +/- for one specific game is not entirely telling. Tracking this over the course of the year, will give a much clearer picture as to what each player brings to the team. Below is the updated season to date +/- for each player.

• In a close game like this, there isn't going to be many huge misses.  This game was extremely close and you can see that from the plus/minus data.  
• Every player in this games' Pts/Min decreased, which is expect able.

Lineup Combinations
Here are some quick stats related to the Lineups Tom Crean has used through the three regular season games:

• Coach has used 131 different lineups this year.
• Of those 131, only 41 are negative year to date. (Increased by 3 this game)
• Best lineup is +45 (went -1 vs Kentucky;Crean's favorite unit (19 times) of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller)
• 2nd Best Lineup is +22 (went -2 vs Kentucky: Consists of Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, Watford and Zeller)
• Worst lineup is -6. (Consists of Hulls, Watford, VJIII, Sheehey and Pritchard)
• 34 lineups have been used multiple times this year.
• The top 4 used lineups contain these players: Hulls, Oladipo, Sheehey, Jones, Watford and Zeller.  Only Hulls and Zeller are in all 4 lineups together.

Lineup Creator!
Here is your chance to play Coach Crean!
What you can do is go to this link, "+/- Lineup Generator" and it will open an Excel file for you. Using the filters already on the page, you can filter the lineups for the year to see how all the different combinations of players play together.

For instance, if you wanted to see how the team does when Oladipo and Sheehey are in the game together, filter both their columns. This will return all lineups for the year that Oladipo and Sheehey have been on the floor together!

Overall
What an outstanding game this was.  I apologize for getting the +/- Player Analysis out late, but Kirkwood was calling my name Saturday night.  The hall was rocking, IU is back into the top 25, and Kentucky went home a loser.... What a great night!

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