Plus / Minus Player Analysis

Ever wonder what Coach Crean means when he talks about the Plus / Minus differential after each game? We did too, so we recreated his analysis, and provide it to you here after EVERY game!.

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Showing posts with label Roth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Roth. Show all posts

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Instant Postgame Reaction: IU @ PSU

The early afternoon start had both teams off to a slow start, but it didn’t take long for them to heat up. Zeller was scoring easily inside against man coverage, so Penn State moved to a zone and Indiana shot threw the zone from three point range as any team that leads the nation in three-point field goal percentage should. However, this was a game of runs. Indiana and PSU traded runs, but Indiana had the worst five-man lineup in the game with Prichard, Roth, Moore, Oladipo, and a struggling Watford. It worries me a little bit that Indiana is not looking to go inside as much as they did in the beginning of this year, but when you are shooting 75% from three-point range at half time it is hard to pass them up. At half time, the Hoosiers lead by five over the Nittany Lions.

Coming out of halftime, I think Coach Crean somehow read my postgame typing because Cody got the ball the first three possessions. IU continued hot shooting from deep and stretched their lead to ten points and they were looking like they were primed to blow the Lions out on the road. Then having the Moore, Roth, and Elston lineup in the game a little too long caught up with the Hoosiers and PSU goes on a 7-0 run. I know that Jones III, Hulls, and Zeller were on the bench because of fouls, but you need one of those guys on the court at all times! After a timeout, Hulls came in along with Remy and replaced Moore and Oladipo. Hulls was a great passer out of the lane to Roth for some great three pointers and stretched the lead to 11. Then the game of runs continued and PSU cut it to 6 with Elston taking ill-advised shots and fouling letting the Lions stay in the game.  After Zeller entered the game again, PSU double/triple teamed him leading to some wide-open three point shots by Roth and Hulls. Indiana made sure that PSU stood a chance by missing free throws down the stretch and held a 6 point lead with 1:22 to go in the game. Then Hulls and Roth hit six straight free throws to seal the victory for Indiana

This game was back and forth throughout most of it and Indiana hung in. The negative I took away from this game is our defense gave up 82 points to a mediocre team in Penn State. The positives were our consistent three-point shooting, Hulls getting his shot back, and a road win.

Final Score: IU 88 PSU 82

Hoo’s Next: Minnesota(12-4) @Indiana (15-1)  1/12 8:00 pm

By Brian Hall (@Hoosier_Hall)

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Immediate Reaction: Michigan Edition

Rapid Reactions:
By: Brian Hall

Man that first half was fun to watch! Victor Oladipo got off to a fast start behind his great defense and quick transitions. I had a feeling before the tip-off that Victor was going to have a big game. He did not let me down!

Indiana built an early lead behind Christian Watford's shooting and Michigan's inability to hit a three pointer. Watford looked like a man determined to prove to Calipari and all of the Kentucky fans that there was nothing lucky about the game winning shot!

Cody Zeller played some quality defense along with a very efficient offensive showing. Matt Roth did what Matt Roth does. Jordan Hulls looked a little out of sorts at times and Verdell Jones III flashed back to his freshman year by trying to drive and create everything. It's 2012 Verdell, not 2008...

With all that being said, IU lead 39-32 at halftime.

Michigan took immediate control of the game during the first six minutes of the second half. That run quieted the crowd as it became tied up. Quickly after, Hulls picked up his second foul and Coach Crean went to his bench for Roth. The direction of the team seemed lost while searching to find a leader. Who would step up and lead this team? Of course the answer is Watford and Zeller!

Zeller has been hitting everything inside lately and IU rode his hot hand with Hulls on the bench. I know Hulls was struggling, but why ride him on the bench with two fouls in a close game when Jones III is struggling? Hulls came back into the game with Jones III and IU calmed down and took back the lead. The Hoosiers extended the lead to ten points on a “Lucky” Watford three and a Victor Oladipo dunk. Indiana went into the flag timeout ahead by 8.

Michigan was able to hang around while Hulls continued to struggle. I'm not sure Coach Crean would leave Jones III in the game when he continued to turn the ball over. Jones III respond by hitting two free throws to take a two points lead with 2:20 to go in the game.

Fast forward a couple of series and Jones III hits the big pull up with 24 seconds to go! Jones followed up those heroics with another miss on the front end of a one-and-one. Michigan quickly came down and launched a three from Kirkwood to close the lead to one with 2.9 seconds left. Indiana go the ball to Watford who hit one of two free throws to put IU up by 2. Michigan got Watford's miss and dribbled to half court for a game winning buzzer beater... that missed it's mark.

Indiana ESCAPED.

Every time IU would pull ahead, I thought it was over. Give Michigan credit as they kept on coming back. You can see Sheehey's value during games like this where Crean would probably substitute him in for Jones III. The positive to take away tonight: We won without Sheehey, a struggling Hulls and struggling Jones.

Hoo’s Next: @ PSU 1/8 12:00 pm

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Gm 3: +/- Player Analysis - Evansville

Welcome back to another addition of the +/- Player Analysis for your 2011-2012 Indiana Hoosiers! IU took on the Purple Aces of Evansville on Wednesday evening and put the game out of reach within the first 15 minutes of the game. I've said this in prior games write-ups, but I'll say it again... This isn't the same old team as they won convincingly 94-73.

Key Players:
  • Watford - rebounded nicely from a couple of dismle games. Showed alot of heart.
  • Zeller - I feel like I could say the same great stuff every night. He commanded the low post to start the game. IU looked to feed him early and often. This resulted in a huge lead for the Hoosiers.... A Zelleresque performance
  • Hulls - 5/7 from the floor for 14pts
  • VJIII - 17pts, 4/4 3pt, 5 reb, 7 ast, 2 blk, 2 TO. The guy was an animal. One of his best performances.
With that being said, let's jump into the +/- Player Analysis

+/- Player Analysis vs Evansville
*Just in case you forgot, here is a quick breakdown as to what the +/- Player Analysis is looking at.
Example:
Here is a quick example of how the +/- stat is determined. Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey start the game for IU. Therefore the score is 0-0. Coach Crean makes his first substitution at 15:00 with the score IU up 15-10. Oladipo comes into the game for Sheehey. For this stint in time, Sheehey would earn a +5 (while Sheehey was in, IU increased their lead by 5 points). The Lineup of Zeller, Watford, VJIII, Hulls and Sheehey also earned a +5. This will continue throughout the game.

Game Overall

Key Takeaways:
  • Remy Abell - I know this will be a hot topic for Hoosier fans as many fans are frustrated with Abell's play. I have to say once I finished crunching the numbers for this game, I had to go back and double/triple check Abell's +/-. I realized while watching the game that he was struggling, but I never would have imagined he would have ended up -16 in 7 minutes for a team that was up by 33 at one point. That is troubling.
  • Christian Watford again is right at the top of the list for the second game in a row. Watford really came out and played his game tonight. We can see by the stats above that he had a great impact on IU while in the game.
  • Cody Zeller -Another top 3 finish for Cody. The trend continues...
  • Matt Roth - Roth led the team in +/- tonight due to a strong stint in the final 10 minutes of the first half. Roth was a part of the unit that went on a 11-0 run. A 3pt specialist like Roth is always interesting in these anlysis. Generally speaking, he won't get many minutes each game, but can result in getting a very high +/- due to his abililty to shoot the long ball. When Roth is in, we see some plays set up to get him shots. If he hits these shots, he will produce a very high +/- like he did this evening.
  • I cannot stress this enough, anything in the GREEN, means the player had a positive impact on the game and helped IU get to their 25pt win.
Lineups of the Night:


Key Takeaways: (click to enlarge)
  • Here you can see the game flow throughout the night. The chart reads from the beginning of the game to the end from top to bottom.
  • In the first two games of the year, IU started out very slow. That was definitely not the case here as 12 of their first 14 lineups were even or positive.
  • Overall, Coach Crean used 24 different combinations of players in the game. Of his 24 combinations, 11 were positive, 6 were neutral (0) and the remaining 7 were negative.
  • Only one unit played multiple times these evening (2). They shared the Best Lineup of the Night award.
  • Remy Abell, was on 6 of the 7 negative lineups for the game.
Best Lineup of the Night:
The best lineup of the night (+11) was a tie between Crean's favorite unit of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller and VJ3, Roth, Sheehey, Watford and Zeller. Crean's favorite unit was the only unit used multiple times again this game. Coach Crean named this group the Starters of the game. They earned a +8 for their first 8.5 minutes in the game. They also started the second half and went +3 in 4 minutes.

The group of VJ3, Roth, Sheehey, Watford and Zeller played one stint tonight that ended +11. This group started their stint at the 7:37 mark in the 1st half with IU leading 31-23. IU exploded over the next 1:53 as IU went on a 11-0 run. The run consisted of 2 Zeller layups, Roth and Watford 3's and a Zeller free throw. This group left at the 5:30 mark with IU leading 42-23.

Worst Lineup of the Night:

The worst lineup of the night came at the end of the game with IU leading 86-59. Obviously at this point of the game, the game was all but wrapped up. This group featured Moore (our previous season leader for +/-, Sheeladipo, Abell and Elston. The group ended their 1 min stint without scoring points while allowing 6. Again this wasn't a big deal as IU had this game soundly put away.

Season to Date:
As many people like to point out, looking at the +/- for one specific game is not entirely telling. Tracking this over the course of the year, will give a much clearer picture as to what each player brings to the team. Below is the updated season to date +/- for each player.
The stats below are only related to Stony Brook, Chattanooga and Evansville.




  • I have added another column to the season long stat which shows the change from the previous game. This is the cumulative +/- for the season so you can see how the Pts/Min was affected based on the Evansville game.
  • I think the most important takeaway from this chart is seeing 4 out of the top 6 positions belonging to our starters. Crean has shown a lean towards one lineup so far this year, and if they can continue to produce like they have been, it will be a great year.
  • The biggest significant drop of the night belongs to Remy Abell. His -16 +/- on the night dropped his season to a -11 and his overall +/- dropped .72 pts/min.
  • Roth being a part of that 11-0 run benefited the most and improved his specialist +/- for the year. He has now surpassed Daniel Moore (dropped 0.49) as the top player for +/-.

Lineup Combinations
Here are some quick stats related to the Lineups Tom Crean has used through the three regular season games:
  • Coach has used 65 different lineups this year.
  • Of those 65, only 16 are negative year to date.
  • Best lineup is +21 (only unit to play in all three games) (Crean's favorite unit of Hulls, Oladipo, VJ3, Watford, Zeller)
  • Worst lineup is -6. (mentioned above)
  • 7 lineups have been used multiple times this year.
  • Hulls, Oladipo, Watford, VJ3 and Zeller have been on the court together 7 separate times this year are statistically the best Lineup for IU right now.
  • Cody Zeller is now present in the top 9 lineups for +/- this year. The next highest presence is Watford (7 of 6).
Overall
IU put on a show in Evansville tonight. They came out from the get go and showed they were stronger, more athletic, quicker and finally an all around better team. If IU has postseason hopes, they will need to continue this type of play on the road. Check back to the site for a preview of the IU vs Savannah State on the 19th.
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+/- Analysis for All 2011-2012 Games

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