Is IU's 13-1 Start a Fluke?

Let me begin by saying I would like to think I am a realistic Hoosier fan. I try my hardest not to get my emotions wrapped up in my analysis and expectations for the season. Last year I had the Hoosiers winning 14 games and missing the NIT. The year before, I thought we'd win 10 games. Without Maurice Creek's injury, I'd like to think I was pretty close to predicting our seasons. This year, according to the chart below, I had us at 21-10 which would put us on the Bubble for March Madness. (See predictions on left versus actual on right)



As we all know, the Hoosiers have surpassed everyone's expectations this year. The team has performed above and beyond my wildest dreams. Looking at the schedule, and based on the analysis below, it appears the Hoosiers have a great shot at going at least 25-6 (Assuming IU goes 6-5 in "Best" games). The Hoosiers are here to stay.

A Closer look at the 13-1 Record.

Indiana went from unranked and picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Big Ten, to a front runner and a top 15 ranked team. This climb to the top isn't a fluke. While many media members and fans (primarily of other teams) will mention the fact that IU has played an easy schedule, I'd like to show them what the Hoosiers have DONE versus that "easy" schedule:

I have broken the schedule into three different buckets: "Good" Games (RPI >200), "Better" Games (RPI 75-199) and "Best" Games (RPI <75). Let's take a look at each group. "Good" Games


The Hoosiers have played 7 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 212-328. These games are called "Good" Games because their current RPI is greater than 200. I called them "Good" to be nice… In the preseason, these are games that were marked off as Wins. While it isn't impressive that IU went 7-0 against these teams. The margin of victory is impressive. IU beat these 7 teams by an average margin of 34.6 points. That isn't winning games, that's demolishing teams. A lot can be said about the margin of victories being inflated due to Coach Crean keeping his starting lineups in the game. That may be true, but to beat 7 teams by an average of 35 points is incredible. It is also good to note that when IU played these schools, three of them were in the top 200 in regards to RPI.

"Better" Games



The Hoosiers have played 3 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 85-162. These games I would call "Better" games as the current RPI is between 75 and 200. Against the Better opponents, IU has gone 3-0 including one road and neutral site victory. Again the key isn't that IU beat these teams, it is how they beat them. IU won these three games by an average margin of 16 points. IU should have won these games, but they won them in a very convincing fashion. The average RPI for this bucket is 126.

"Best" Games



The Hoosiers have played 4 games against teams with a current RPI ranging from 6-48. These games I would call "Best" games as the current RPI is between 1 and 75. Against the Best opponents, IU has gone 3-1. IU is 2-0 at home, and 1-1 on the road for these games. Not including the IU game, these teams have a combined record of 51-6 (90%). They have an average RPI of 18.3 which is driven up by NC State. The average margin of victory in these games is where it gets muddy. IU is averaging 74.5 pts/game while giving up 74.3 pts/game which leads to an average margin of victory of 0.2 points. This shows how close these games have been.

Overall:



Overall the Hoosiers have gone 13-1 against an average RPI of 167.5. Obviously with the Big Ten schedule heating up, the Hoosiers are set to face much tougher opponents. IU has 17 games left in the season. As the RPI currently falls, IU has 11 "Best" Games, 5 "Better" Games and only 1 "Good" Game left. The average RPI of IU's remaining games is 73.5.

The point of this analysis is to show that many people who feel IU isn't a top 10 team based on our schedule are kidding themselves. While some opponents haven't been the best, IU has BEAT them like a Top 10 team should. The Hoosiers have another "Best" game coming up on Thursday vs. RPI #34 Michigan (Preview).

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Hoosiers Land a Big Fisch

By Brent Boles (@Slumpbusting)

Indiana received its third class of 2013 commitment from Germantown, Wisconsin big man Luke Fischer. Fischer pledged his commitment to Tom Cream and the Hoosiers after making the trip to Bloomington with his family to witness IU defeat Ohio State 74-70 on New Year's Eve.

What exactly does Fischer's commitment mean for the Hoosiers? For one it means front court depth. IU fans are hopeful that when the high school junior arrives in Bloomington in 2 years that Cody Zeller will still be donning candy stripes, and Fischer will serve as a viable backup.

Worst case scenario? Zeller leaves early for the NBA and Fischer, listed anywhere between 6'8" and 6'9", will form a three headed monster with 2012 recruits Hanner Perea and Peter Jurkin.

Even with the possibility of early attrition, Indiana fans you take note that the days of watching undersized Hoosiers playing out of position. Long gone are the days of watching walk-on Kyle Taber jump for an opening tip-off, or seeing AJ Moye leave his guts on the court because he's playing out of position at power forward. Tom Crean is building depth at Indiana.

What's this mean for the rest of the 2013 class? If Indiana fans have learned anything about Tom Crean, it's that he never stops recruiting, whether the team has scholarships available or not. Many people believed that this would be a four man class for IU. Fischer is commit number 3 joining Indianapolis area natives Collin Hartman and Devin Davis. Don't assume that Crean will turn up the heat, and close out the class with a pledge from either Bo Zeigler or Derek Willis. Receiving the verbal from the Wisconsin big man isn't going to stop Crean from going after other front court players. The Indiana faithful should fully expect the IU staff to keep pursuing Maryland big man Beejay Anya.

What's this mean for the future? With three commitments in the 2013 class and James Blackmon Jr. and Trey Lyles committed for 2014, Tom Crean can now be choosey with who is offered a scholarship. Up until this point IU has been able to convince the best players in the state to stay home and play for the Hoosiers without much success on the basketball court. With the momentum of a 13-1 start including wins over the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the country, the Indiana staff can now focus on the state's best talent while stretching out into other parts of the country going after the nation's best.

Check out Fischer's Highlights

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Happy Hoo Year!

What better way to bring in the new year than another top ten list?  It would be my pleasure, Hoosier Nation.

Top Ten New Year's Resolutions for Hoosiers Basketball

10. Feed Cody. Literally, feed the boy!  Understand that he's only a freshman, and still growing, but just imagine if he put on another 25 pounds.  He'd be around 245, still getting taller than the 6'11" he already is, plus a year of experience in the always tough and physical Big Ten.  It's the recipe for domination in his future.  Along with putting on weight, he needs to be fed the rock more often.  He's shooting nearly 75% from the free-throw line, so pass the ball inside and allow him to get his chances at the charity stripe.  Stack the fouls up on the opponents' starting centers, like done in the game against Kentucky, and get the studs on the bench and let Zeller go to work against smaller, less talented players.

9. Schedule more top ranked teams to play at home.  After the number one and number two teams in the nation were beaten in Assembly Hall it appears it is a place to be feared and reckoned with.  Indiana plays basketball.  Assembly Hall is a basketball atmosphere, mecca if you will.  Schedule them and they will be beat. Who else wants some?!!

8. More seating at Assembly Hall. Sure, 17,472 fans screaming and rushing the court is a lot, and one hell of a beautiful sight, but there's something that would make it even better: 17,473 Hoosiers fans swarming the court.  Besides, who wouldn't like more friends?

7. Rebound the basketball.  IU is ranked 158th in the nation in rebounding.  I can't help but think of how much less stress I would be under if IU would carry double digit leads into the last two minutes of games versus teams like Ohio State and Kentucky.  Cody Zeller is averaging about 15 points per game, and that number would be 20+ if he'd get more second chances.  Add another few points to Watford's average of 13 and we'll see those double digit leads against solid opponents more often.  Develop a presence inside and get up there and bring the ball down! 

6. Road wins.  Assembly Hall is Heaven on Earth, but it's only fair to go to others' houses and play ball too.  But road wins against teams like NC State won't cut it, especially when the tournament comes around.  The Hoosiers saw a semi-harsh atmosphere at Michigan State, and that was without the students in town.  Let's see how Indiana fares on the road when they go play a Buckeye team that's seeking revenge, and in their house no less.  If this Hoosiers team can start coming back to Bloomington with big wins under their belts they will develop the confidence they'll need when March rolls around.

5. More cowbell.  Not literally, because there is no room for the cowbell in college basketball outside of Purdue, and that's only when the Homecoming queen is entering the gym.  But the student section at Indiana has been ranked in the top five, and with a little more spirit those crazies in Cameron might get a bit of competition.  I want to hear, "Hoo Hoo Hoo Hoosiers!" from my couch here in South Carolina.

4. Transition.  Countless times IU has had numbers on a fast break and for whatever reason the ball handler slows down and waits for everyone to catch up.  Oladipo isn't the only one on the team who can posterize a man.  If nothing else, drive in and draw a foul. Get the other team's starters on the bench and take advantage of the opponent while their second string is having to carry the load.  Patience is good, but the basketball court is one place where it's okay to kick a man while he's down.   In fact, I find it quite enjoyable to watch.

3. Help others.  With 15.1 assists per game, the Hoosiers rank 49th in the nation, which means that there are plenty of teams better than the Hoosiers at finding the open man.  It's better to give than to receive.  Rather than settling for rushed jump shots and trying to force the ball into the basket, find a shooter that has separated himself from his defender and get him the ball.  Assists mean points, and points mean wins, and wins make me and all of the other Hoosiers fans, players and coaches happy.  

2. Take back the state.  With wins this season over Butler and Notre Dame, there's only one school left on the hit list.  Purdue, we're coming, and afterward you, too, will know that Indiana is back.  Jordan and Cody came to Indiana to play for the state that fed them in their youth, and it's time for other star players to stay and get some of mom's cookin' while playing for the Crimson and Cream.

1. Six. If you have to ask then you'll never know.

Happy New Year Hoosiers!  

-Kenneth Languell

@AskTheWho

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Coach Crean and Player Reflect on OSU Win

See what Coach Crean and the Players had to say about IU's victory over #2 Ohio State!

Coach Crean:


Hulls, Jones, Oladipo:

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New Commit Luke Fischer Highlights

Indiana's big win over Ohio State is already paying dividends for the Hoosiers. IU picked up Luke Fischer a 6'9" big man from Wisconsin. Check out some highlights of Luke below.
Video via InsideIndiana


Video via Mwballers

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